It is the supply and demand dynamic the Federal Government insists will kick in soon.This week’s release of the fourth quarter wage price index (WPI) will give an idea of what is going on. The most common forecast is things won’t get worse.Not getting worse is hardly what the workforce is looking for, nor the inspiration the Reserve Bank needs to start lifting its official interest rate from the emergency low setting of 1.5 per cent it has been mired at since August 2016.Indeed the RBA has fingered desultory wage growth and high household debt as its greatest concerns in getting meaningful momentum into a lumpy economy.The twin anxieties of wages and debt are not only the cause of much hand wringing at the RBA’s Martin Place HQ, but also out in Australia’s households and shopping centres.They are the fundamental reasons why retail is constantly the most downbeat sector in the domestic economy.Given consumer spending accounts for around 60 per cent of the economy, a consumer strike is hardly just a pebble in the shoe of the great march forward to economic prosperity.New EBAs driving wages downThe consensus view is Wednesday’s WPI will deliver 0.5 per cent growth over the quarter, or 2 per cent over the year so yes, that is not worse, nor is it better.The Government will likely ask for a bit more forbearance as the whole, “job, jobs, jobs” vibe fires up.However, another flat result would be met with little applause from workers, economists and retailers.”While wages growth appears to have broadly found a base, we remain concerned about near term outcomes given average wages growth in newly negotiated collective bargaining agreements appears to be even lower than the agreements they replace,” Macquarie’s economic team recently noted. (Source: ABS, Thomson Reuters, ABC News)So what is behind this conundrum of seemingly tighter labour conditions and low wage growth?The RBA’s assistant governor Luci Ellis had a stab at breaking it down in a recent speech based on research from the RBA’s business liaison unit.”The response to that difficulty [of finding staff] has not been to pay people more,” Dr Ellis noted.”Instead, we hear that firms are increasingly using other creative ways to attract and keep staff.”These include everything from hiring bonuses, to offering extra hours, to increasing perks and workplace conditions.”The odd thing is there is not even a sniff of inflation taking off, yet Dr Ellis said business’s perception of their lot is strong demand and rising cost pressures means they won’t raise prices.What could go wrong? Dismal incomes, shrinking savings and an economy largely underwritten by consumers is a worrying mix, writes Stephen Letts.”They [business owners] appear to believe that competition is so intense that they would lose too much business if they did so [raise prices],” she said.”So they are especially reluctant to grant wage rises, because this would increase one of their most important costs.”So it all goes around in a loop low wages, low consumption, anxious business owners, leads to low wages.Breaking out of it is going to be a drawn out process.Wage agreements struck under EBAs tend to last years and are likely to act as a dead weight on wages attempting to climb off the mat for some time yet.”The weak wages outcomes in new enterprise bargaining agreements in the third quarter were a surprise to us and as a result we are very wary of expecting any lift in near term WPI growth,” the Macquarie team observed..

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